Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been criticised severely for his unending foreign trips. Of course, his trips create a lot of noise due to his high-voltage speeches that draw crowds, because perhaps in post-Independence India, we haven’t had any political leader with such brilliant oratory skills leading our nation.
It can’t be denied that along with giving India a renewed respectability in the world, his trips are also bolstering FDI, as India becomes the largest destination for FDI in the world.
The landlocked resource-rich Central Asian nations ‘5-CAN’ (popularly referred to as the ‘5 Stans’), share cultural, historical and religious links with India. Just to mention one of them, the Turkman Gate built in the 17th century derives its name from Turkmenistan.
Unfortunately, earlier Indian leaders failed to forge bilateral ties with these nations since their disassociation from the Soviet Union in 1991 due to geostrategic compulsions. The key focus of the NDA-2 government has been to effectively enhance the economic interests of the country with adroit foreign policy stratagem.
PM Narendra Modi inspecting the guard of honour at the Official Welcome Ceremony, at Akorda President’s Palace, in Astana, Kazakhstan on July 08, 2015. He is accompanied by the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev. Photo: PIB
The last prime ministerial visits to Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan were way back in September 1995 by PV Narasimha Rao. The last time an Indian prime minister set foot on Tajikistan soil was over a decade ago with AB Vajpayee going there in 2003.
Manmohan Singh, in turn, was the last Indian prime minister to visit Uzbekistan in April 2006 and 6 years after this visit, India’s “Connect Central Asia” policy was launched by the UPA government in 2012, a diplomatic blunder in terms of timing. By then, India had already missed the bus, like Nehru did when he gave UNSC seat on a platter to China.
PM Modi’s visit to the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan known as “5-CAN” – was not only symbolic but was also significant in terms of re-energising Indian diplomacy in a strategically important region in the Indian backyard. The visit was also important for widening the strategic perimeter and imagination among our own people towards the region beyond Pakistan and China. Sadly, the media failed to bring that traction. Barring the state-owned channels, mainstream media remained muted simply because the visit lacked the scintillating “rock-star” image and the patriotic fervour that we see among the Indian diaspora in other countries. Modi is the only Indian Prime Minister who visited all the 5-CAN nations during a single trip.
Modi’s visit took place against the backdrop of major global and regional developments:
- Russia’s renewed assertion in Central Asia following its standoff with the West over Ukraine
- China’s renewed push for building connectivity infrastructure to link with Europe via Central Asia under its Silk Road Economic Belt initiative
- Prospects of Iran coming to the regional fore following its recent nuclear breakthrough with the major powers
- Developing situation in Afghanistan in the context of growing Afghanistan-Pakistan proximity to rehabilitate the Taliban
The importance of touching base with the region was thus critical and the Prime Minister’s visit may have imparted the necessary momentum to India’s ties with these countries.
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Combating terrorism, cementing defense, economic and energy ties and enhancing connectivity were recurring themes in the Prime Minister’s discussions with the leaders of these countries. In all, the 21 bilateral agreements signed with the five countries were desirable, although they have already been in practice for the last two decades with little or no success. The reasons are numerous and intrinsic – they are hard to triumph over.
The connectivity issue, i.e., the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), has been discussed since 2000. Crores have been spent on Bandar Abas and now on the Chabahar Port option. But accessing Central Asia via the Indian Ocean is a flawed approach that has proved unviable and has not worked so far. During the visit, Modi mooted the idea of bypassing Afghanistan to link with Central Asia through surface, digital and air connectivity. Many wonder whether his visit was linked to India’s growing disenchantment with Afghanistan’s increasing closeness with Pakistan.
Three path-breaking developments deserve attention:
- Nazarbayev’s daring decision to sign a major contract for a renewed long-term supply of 5,000 Metric tonnes (MT) of uranium to India during the next five years is the most significant takeaway of the Prime Minister’s visit. This is, in fact, proving more promising than achievements on the hydrocarbons side.
- India’s ONGC-Videsh Ltd (OVL) has finally made its first breakthrough when Modi launched the drilling operations for oil exploration in the Satpayev block on 7 July 2015.
- The Ufa Summit and Modi’s visit to Turkmenistan may also have possibly shown the way finally even for the TAPI pipeline to see the light of day. In Ashgabat, PM Modi called the TAPI project a “key pillar” and pushed for its realisation “quickly”.
Also, remember that Pakistan will use TAPI pipeline to blackmail India for unrealistic revenue, which will ultimately be used to fund terror in the region. Hence, an alternate route bypassing Pakistan can also be part of the 5-CAN strategic initiatives.
Importantly, the Modi government seems to have realised that India’s internal issues including Kashmir, energy security, connectivity and above all problems with Pakistan are linked to the larger balance of power game. They are interlinked and hence cannot be treated in isolation.
The attempts made in the past to resolve the Kashmir issue, Indo-Pak conflict and enlarging interests in Central Asia failed to get off the ground. It is here that the Modi-led government is trying to broaden the scope of geopolitical engagement. Modi’s meeting Putin and Nawaz Sharif in Ufa, followed by his visit to Ashgabat, cannot be without a well thought-out strategy.
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The geopolitical and corporate games around pipeline projects have greatly changed following the Ukraine crisis and the ensuing Russia-West standoff. As India’s energy demands increase, it will find itself in the centre of important geopolitical and energy relationships. Things are also likely to become more complex after the recent breakthrough between Iran and the Western powers.
Most of the media had written about PM Narendra Modi’s 5-CAN trip but here is summary of key strategic issues other’s forgot to write about or overlooked
Uzbekistan
Counter-terrorism and to bring about coordination between law-enforcement agencies and special services of both nations under the framework of Joint Working Group on Counter-terrorism.
Uzbekistan’s support for joining the Ashgabat Agreement, a transit pact established in 2011 by Iran, Oman, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. Such an inclusion could boost India’s chances of massively improving its connectivity with and through Central Asia.
PM Modi’s visit to the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan known as “5-CAN” – was not only symbolic but was also significant in terms of re-energising Indian diplomacy in a strategically important region in the Indian backyard
Kazakhstan
Civil nuclear cooperation that spans from 2015-2019, India can get upto 5000 metric tons of Uranium!! Thus, all the Indian nuclear reactors, which were shut down due to the unavailability of fuel, will be back in action.
International North South Corridor (INSTC). INSTC was established in 2000 by India, Russia and Iran to increase rail, road and water connectivity between India, Iran, Russia, Europe and the Central Asian Countries. Two trials are being conducted on this route which connects Mumbai to Bandar Abbas and subsequently Bandar-e-Anzali (in Iran) to Astrakhan in Russia and finally onwards to Central Asia.
The Chabahar port from Iran will develop another transit corridor which links Iran, Oman and Central Asia. India is steadfastly looking towards the North-South corridor since Pakistan has comprehensively posed a great barrier to India’s access to Central Asia.
India’s shortest route to Central Asia is through Lahore, Rawalpindi and Peshawar. But, despite fervent appeals from India, Afghanistan and the US, Pakistan refuses to grant overland transit facilities to India. Tajikistan is just 20km away from the border of greater Kashmir, but with denial of access to this traditional route for the movement of goods has become a humongous task.
Turkmenistan
Cross-border threats, terrorism, drug-trafficking were core strategic initiative.
Quick implementation of $ 10 billion, 1800 kilometer long TAPI (Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan and India) gas pipeline which will deliver 3.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per annum to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of Oil and natural gas. While project TAPI was conceived two decades ago, its progress is stunted as it passes through conflict areas in Afghanistan and Pakistan. While reinforcing that the gas line could usher in economic prosperity in the region, PM Modi stressed on the feasibility of exploring multiple alternate options such as the land-sea route through Iran for TAPI’s quick implementation.
The two sides signed seven pacts including one on defense cooperation. PM Modi also proposed the establishment of an agriculture research institute and a urea production facility in Turkmenistan.
According to a news report in The Economic Times, “The Turkmen ruler is a dentist with a keen interest in herbal medicine. So, when India proposed a Yoga institute in Ashgabat, the president responded that his government will grant land if the institute also taught Indian medicine. An Ayurveda teacher flew from India to Turkmenistan even before Modi finished his five-nation tour — proof of how seriously New Delhi was conducting its charm offensive”.
Kyrgyzstan
The Special Forces of both countries had held a joint exercise in March titled Khanzar 2015 and during the current visit discussions on defense cooperation was broadened.
Kyrgyzstan has recently joined the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union. It promised to work towards the conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement between Eurasia Economic Union and India. India in turn has offered to share its experience on agro-processing, tele-medicine, green-house technology, water conservation and agriculture research.
Tajikistan
India has its lone foreign airbase at Ayni near the capital city of Dushanbe which was refurbished in 2007. But India couldn’t base its helicopters as Tajikistan under Russian pressure denied access. India had high hopes of having its foot print in the Central Asia with this military outpost.
Military hospital built by India at the Tajik airbase at Farkhor, an initiative to boost Defense Corporation and build Tajik as strategic military base.
Inclusion of India in the existing Pakistan Afghanistan Tajikistan Trilateral Transit Trade Agreement (PATTTTA), an arrangement aimed at facilitating trade between South Asian countries and Tajikistan. Tajik leadership sought for greater Indian engagement in hydroelectric power generation.
PM Modi’s meeting with Putin and Nawaz Sharif in Ufa, followed by his visit to Ashgabat, cannot be without a well thought-out strategy.
Prime Minister Modi’s back to back visit to the geographically contiguous Central Asian Republics is a perspicacious decision. These nations were under the Russian influence till 1991 but have always harbored goodwill towards India. These land-locked countries, in the backyard of Russia, deprived of robust connectivity are still largely dependent on its past master. Despite their willingness to carve a unique niche they have been unable to break out from the influence of Russia. China in the meanwhile is making deeper inroads into these countries and trying to trade in their much-needed lifeline: Oil and natural gas.
With the emergence and spread of ISIS in Middle East and West Asia, the impending threats of extremism and terrorism have become common cause of concern for India and the 5-CAN. PM Modi in his diplomatic engagement with 5-CAN did raise this issue and sought cooperation to counter terrorism and radicalism. If you carefully see, PM visit to these nation have 3 things in common at strategic level out of media glare, defense, energy & Terrorism.
They, the 5-CAN are now looking forward to India to play a strategic and balancing role in this region. An opportunity India can’t afford to miss or overlook anymore. PM Narendra Modi visit to 5-CAN may be laughed out by opposition & sold-out media in India but the fact is that his trip has got the ‘powerful nations’ to take a close watch. The recent threat by China to veto if India is considered for a UNSC seat is one of great example to view unrest within a few nations who believe they dominate the World. Narendra Modi is now “The Game Changer”.
In short, PM Modi’s 5-CAN visit was indeed very comprehensive.
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