The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said it expects Hillary Clinton to win the 2016 US presidential election, with the Democrats winning a majority in the Senate, while the Republicans would retain control of the House of Representatives.
Announcing the launch of “Election 2016: The unpopularity contest”, the EIU said it is expected that Clinton will serve for only one term because the business cycle will probably end in the next four years, pushing the economy into a mild recession, which will lead voters to be disappointed with the party’s failure to maintain economic growth.
Consequently, the Republicans will win the 2020 presidential election, having made concessions on immigration policy and having toned down its nativist rhetoric, but the party will field a better salesman than Donald Trump, said the statement by EIU, the world’s leading resource for economic and business research, forecasting and analysis.
Mike Jakeman, US analyst at the EIU said: “So far, Donald Trump has run a campaign that has veered between offensive and disastrous. It would require a remarkable renaissance for him to overturn the negative views held by so many Americans. However, winning the 2016 election is likely to prove a poisoned chalice. The business cycle is already long in the tooth and the likelihood of recession under the next President is high. Arguably, Hillary Clinton has long suffered from bad timing. This is likely to be the case even if she wins the election.”
The high unfavourability ratings of both candidates means that the next President will start from a position of weakness, and a divided Congress will make passing key pillars of their agenda even more difficult, the statement added.
As per the statement the Republican’s long-term success will depend on changing some of its current policies, which will appeal to a shrinking share of the electorate.
The EIU also believes that Clinton will be successful in promoting clean energy and healthcare reforms, but will struggle to tighten gun control laws, whereas, Trump’s plans for a huge wall on the southern border with Mexico and mass deportations of millions of undocumented workers are completely unrealistic.
Whoever wins, filling the vacancy in the Supreme Court will be the most consequential
act by the new President, it said.